SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Valid 301630Z – 311200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY….

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the ArkLaTex region and
lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys, mainly late this
afternoon and tonight, with isolated strong/severe thunderstorms
possible.

…Arklatex into the Tennessee Valley…
Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough across the
northern Plains and Rockies, with moderately strong
west-southwesterly flow aloft extending from TX into the southeast
states. A cold front is pushing southeastward across OK/MO and will
move into the Arklatex and TN Valleys tonight. Southerly low-level
winds ahead of the front will help to moisten/destabilize the
region, with dewpoints in the 60s and MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg
this evening and tonight. This will lead to a rather broad area of
scattered thunderstorm potential. 12z CAM solutions generally agree
in isolated coverage of storms, and suggest that weak large-scale
forcing will limit the overall updraft/downdraft intensities.
However, forecast soundings show profiles generally favorable for
the risk of hail and gusty winds in the stronger cells that can
develop. Therefore, will maintain the broad MRGL risk category at
this time.

..Hart/Lyons.. 03/30/2021

Read moreSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the ArkLaTex region and
lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys, mainly late this
afternoon and tonight, with isolated strong/severe thunderstorms
possible.

...Arklatex into the Tennessee Valley...
Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough across the
northern Plains and Rockies, with moderately strong
west-southwesterly flow aloft extending from TX into the southeast
states.  A cold front is pushing southeastward across OK/MO and will
move into the Arklatex and TN Valleys tonight.  Southerly low-level
winds ahead of the front will help to moisten/destabilize the
region, with dewpoints in the 60s and MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg
this evening and tonight.  This will lead to a rather broad area of
scattered thunderstorm potential.  12z CAM solutions generally agree
in isolated coverage of storms, and suggest that weak large-scale
forcing will limit the overall updraft/downdraft intensities. 
However, forecast soundings show profiles generally favorable for
the risk of hail and gusty winds in the stronger cells that can
develop.  Therefore, will maintain the broad MRGL risk category at
this time.

..Hart/Lyons.. 03/30/2021

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